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Market Update

Market Update: World War 3?

World War Three. There, I said it. People have nightmares about this stuff. People make movies about this stuff. People write fiction and sci-fi about this stuff. People look at the First World War, they look at the Second World War, and say, “No, we’ll never have World War Three because now we have so many nukes between the US and Russia, our mutual destruction would be guaranteed.” 

February 2022 Market Update

Before I start on my comments about what’s been going on, I want you to know that I’ve been working on what to say for the last 30 days. Now that we’re a month into the year, I can add some color to what we’re seeing. 

Market Update: Choose Happiness

Usually when we write market updates every so often, we talk about what’s going on in the financial markets, and what we’re seeing and our thoughts on the market activity. If you’ve talked to me even briefly in the last few weeks, you know I’ve made it clear that my crystal ball is broken. Now, if a financial advisor who follows this stuff for a living has no idea what to think or expect, well, that’s pretty disconcerting for some folks.

The Best-laid Plans…

Lately, we’ve seen something of a tale of two markets. The Nasdaq, which comprises primarily technology and biotech companies, has actually rebounded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, which are made up of more traditional industries that require in-person gatherings, are down. It’s an interesting study in haves and have-nots. This is why we always tell you to diversify your investments, folks, and we have been actively adjusting your portfolios since March as we’ve followed the current events.

May Market Update

I feel like a broken record when I keep saying that these days, it seems like it always comes back to Trump tweets. But, that’s the world we live in, right? No US president has paid more attention to where the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on a day-to-day basis. Everyone wants the economy to do well, and the president wants to be in a growing economy, and no one else has ever shared opinions about where things are on a moment-by-moment basis as businesses are handling their day-to-day operations.

Market Update

We’re a month into 2019. Here’s our take.

2019 year calendar. January calendar on a white background. 3d RenderingWell folks, the first month of 2019 is in the books, and we’re already dealing with all those winter ailments. Fayette County schools even closed last week for sanitizing, as so many kids were home sick with various symptoms. These bugs have not discriminated against anyone, as children and adults alike have fallen victim. Many in our office have been hit, including yours truly! But, I think we’re all on the mend.

This sickness has all of us a little ahead on our New Year weight loss plans too! So, despite Girl Scout Thin Mint season coming up, please, don’t bring any more treats into the office until next Christmas! So many of our clients are amazing cooks and bakers, but we really are trying to be healthy.

Now, back to financial news. So far this year, the markets have surprised us in showing some resilience, as the Dow has bounced back up from where we ended last year. By now I know you’ve gotten your 2018 statements, but keep in mind that they don’t reflect where things are now. Many of your balances are probably significantly higher than they were on December 31, and I think we can all agree that’s a good thing.

This is also the start of the S&P 500 earnings reports, and so far, the majority are beating their earnings estimates. In general, we’re not hearing companies talk about a significantly weakening economy. Yes, we have seen some seasonal slowness in the auto and housing industries, and are having some backlog in the semiconductor sector, sure. But people are still using Proctor & Gamble products, buying Starbucks coffee and going shopping. We continue to see data that the rest of the world is in the midst of a slow-down, but that’s been recurring overseas for some time. And, we don’t think that we have to slow down just because other parts of the world are. Our economy is completely different from China’s, or Germany’s.

My opinion is that we aren’t going into a full-blown recession, and it’s nice that the markets have bounced back, but I don’t think the recent volatility is all we’ll see. I believe that a lot of the recent market activity is due to computer trading and artificial intelligence, and that is something the regulators need to address, just as the NFL needs to address what happened to the Saints! Will they? Well, in a perfect world, they would…

So far this year, the markets have surprised us in showing some resilience, as the Dow has bounced back up from where we ended last year. By now I know you’ve gotten your 2018 statements, but keep in mind that they don’t reflect where things are now. Many of your balances are probably significantly higher than they were on December 31, and I think we can all agree that’s a good thing.

Trump Tweets, Walgreens & China

There really has been no significant change as it seems to bounce around every day. Keep in mind these 100-point moves we’ve seen are the result of more and more electronic trades, and trades seem to be based off every headline whether it’s Trump Tweets, US trade with China or GE being replaced by Walgreens in the Dow.

One Year In

Yesterday was the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s election as US president, and I know many people who wanted to see the economy fail and the complete demise of America in the wake of that news. For those of you who still hope for that, personally, I view that as unfortunate. I’m an optimistic person by nature, and I want the best for the America that I love. I’ve also learned, in my very limited time on this earth, that some very surprising results can come from unprecedented situations.

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